Kenya: half-term is solution


  1. Now that the principle of discussion and negotiation is being put forward as the only way out of the Kenyan crisis, it is time to suggest to the future mediation team some solutions that could illuminate them.

    I am strongly convinced that Kibaki hurriedly took his oath to put everybody, including Odinda and the international community, in front of an accomplished fact, which automatically puts him in the position of control. This means that the mediation team will not have to suggest his stepping down, because it would not work at all.

    On the other hand, Odinga is strong-headedly convinced that he is the winner, and perhaps he is right, given the fact that the last vote-counting hours were rather like poll-filling time for Kibaki, who suddenly made up the over-1 million vote gap and added some more hundreds of thousands.

    The above suggests that the two former allies, who by the way, belong to two big ethnic groups, need satisfaction, and this is how they can get it. Let them have a glance at the transition to democracy in Burundi. After years of unrest, the Tutsi and the Hutu decided to open a new era of democracy, preceded by a successful transition. In that period, the incumbent Tutsi president ruled for two years with a Hutu vice president, and then a Hutu ruled two years with a Tutsi vice president, and the whole process ended with transparent elections.

    The Burundi model can inspire Kenya. The only lesson from the December election is that there are two caimans – Kibaki and Odinga - in one pool. The election belongs now to the past and another one should be planned after the two half terms. If this Burundi model was adopted, there is no reason for either side to reject it as power would be equally shared pending the next elections.