By FRED OLUOCH

The East African region is watching keenly as Kenya tries to reform its electoral system that almost plunged the entire region into turmoil in 2008.

But while the Kenyan leadership is upbeat that elections will never be bugled again, discussions at the three-day National Conference on Electoral Reforms, reveal that Kenya still faces major challenges if the country is to avoid a repeat of the violence in 2012.

One of the key challenges is how to deal with the issue of ethnicity that has always undermined Kenya’s democratic process, which came out clearly in the run-up to the 2007 elections.

According to the chairman of the recently formed Interim Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC), Issack Hassan , Kenya needs an electoral system that will ensure the ballots cast translate into seats, promote ethnic harmony and does not lead to ethnic based politics.

Although both President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minster, Raila Odinga, vowed during the conference that Kenya opening a new chapter by deciding to reform its electoral system, the problem is that Kenyan leaders have the habit of saying the right things but do less. This is unlike Rwanda, which after suffering the 1994 genocide, has learnt from the episode and decided to change the society for the better. The conference was to rebuild confidence in elections after the debacle of 2007.

For years, Kenyans have been crying for reforms in the electoral system that does not give the incumbent the advantage during elections. Both former president Daniel arap Moi and the current President Kibaki, were accused of using the disbanded Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) to their advantage through appointments of their friends to the disbanded electoral body.

The second challenge is that the electoral reforms is two-pronged. The IIEC has been given a 24-month mandate to reform the electoral system, while at the same time, the constitutional review process might just rubbish their work given that the law requires IIEC to disband three months after a new constitution with a brand new electoral system, comes into force.

Dr Patrick Lumumba, a former secretary-general of the defunct Constitution of Kenya Review Commission, argued that electoral reforms alone might not make a difference unless Kenyans are ready denounce ethnicity and embrace the values of democracy.

"Kenya may have a functioning executive, judiciary and the legislature, but all these ingredients does not ensure that the country has democracy in the electoral system. Democracy demands that we have a certain political culture that is predictable and believed by the majority, but unfortunately, these ideals do not exist in Kenya," he said.

Now, Kenya will have to chose from three electoral systems that have served other countries well. The first is first-past-the-post, currently used in Kenya but which has been characterized by disputes and petitions. In this system, the winner takes all despite the slim majority and the fact all his opponents combined might have gotten more votes.

Its disadvantage is that the w inner, be it at parliamentary or presidential level, might not enjoy the support of the majority. This happened during the 1992 and 1997 elections, where former president won by less than 40 percent while the combined opposition candidate put together had more votes than him.

The second system that Kenya could adopt is the proportional representation, where each party wins seats in proportion to the votes it wins nationally. It is more competitive, good for minorities and women, in that the parties must prepare a list that must include 30 percent of women. The flip side of it is that it can encourage proliferation of parties which might turn out to be ethnic-based. It also tends to produce coalition governments that are unsteady and weak.

The third option is the mixed member proportional representation or commonly known as the MMPR. It is a combination of first-past-the post and proportional representation. It gives chance for competition but still leaves room for party lists, minorities and women.
"As country, that is where we are headed, because we want to ensure that the electoral system reflects the will of the voter," said Mr Hassan, who added that the current Presidential Election Act does not contain the right of every citizen to vote, but only describes who becomes a voter.

But more challenging, according to Mr Hassan, is what type Electoral Management Body (EMB) is sutable for Kenya?

There are three models, depending on socio-economic condition of the country. There are independent bodies, formed under the law with security of tenure, they dont take instructions from any body but are accountable to public money they use.

Then there are government bodies that takes care of elections like in the United States, United Kingdom. It can be headed by a minster of senior civil service. Before the re-introduction of multiparty democracy in 1991, Kenya used a government controlled body in the Supervisor of Elections under the office of the attorney-general.

The third is the mixed body in which an independent body works closely with the government, this is found in France, Japan, Spain Francophone countries in Africa.

Kenya started with an independent body at independence when it created an autonomous election commission. Then came the government-controlled led by Supervisor of Elections who worked under the office of the attorney-general.

In 1991, following the re-introduction of political pluralism, the defunct ECK was established, but the then ruling party Kanu appointed all the 11 commissioners. After the lessons of 1992 elections, the opposition agitated for inclusion in the electoral body that subsequently led to the 1997 Inter-Parties Parliamentary Group (IPPG) minimum reforms.

The opposition parties were allowed to nominate their representative to the commission and were they had 10 slots. It is this rule that President Kibaki was accused of violating when he appointed new commissioners in the run-up to the 2007 elections without consulting the opposition.

But on the positive side is that there is already an attempt to consolidate all elections under one law through the proposed Electoral Commission Act. There is also the proposal to hold presidential elections on separate day from the parliamentary and civic elections, besides other quarters are agitating for the introduction of the independent candidate provision